Welcome to our daily NHL game probabilities page where you will find win probabilities for each of the night’s games, as well as win probability percentages converted to American and Decimal odds.
We balance market information from regular season point totals and in-season advanced metrics — with an even-strength focus — to determine the win probability for each team. Our objective is to accurately gauge each team’s win probability and compare to sportsbooks moneylines to uncover worthwhile betting opportunities. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.
For optimal betting strategy, we recommend plugging each probability into a Kelly Criterion calculator with a Kelly multiplier of 0.35 (full Kelly is a bit too aggressive for a sport as variant as hockey).
The parameters for identifying a betting edge are at your discretion, yet here’s a glimpse into our strategy:
Favorite – True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1% betting edge
50/50 – True line between -110 and +110: 2.5% betting edge
Underdog – True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4% betting edge
Additionally, we account for a 5% win probability adjustment for teams grappling with the demands of playing their second game in a back-to-back sequence involving travel. Similarly, a 3% adjustment is made for teams on the latter half of back-to-back home games. Injuries are factored in as well with adjustments reflecting an injured player’s impact on their team’s win probability.
As betting markets open, you can compare our model’s probabilities with sportsbook prices to spot value in either side’s moneyline with chances of new bet-friendly ranges appearing up until puck drop.
Download our Free NHL Betting Edge Tool here. to convert game probabilities into odds and find the best betting values against sportsbook lines. Uncover your value betting edge now.
For those looking to take control — you can also purchase the model to run yourself. The advantage? Execute it as soon as the lines open allowing you to time the market and gain an early edge.
While our model has historically been profitable, there is no guarantee of continued profits; please don’t bet any money you are uncomfortable risking.
NHL Win Probability Percentages below generated using our NHL Probabilities Model.
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