Welcome to our weekly NFL game probabilities page where you will find the win probability for each of the scheduled games, as well as win probabilities converted to American and Decimal odds. Our model phases out older data and uses data from this year as the season progresses.
In the table below, you can find the model’s projected point spread and point total for all the weekly games, compared side-by-side with the betting odds. Using those side-by-side comparisons, you can see where you might have an edge or betting value over the sportsbooks.
Our NFL model takes in a bunch of different metrics and creates a projection for each team. Those projections are then used to project a spread and total for each game. Our model can find the chance a team wins, a game covers the spread or the point total.
“Spread VBE Model” is the model’s projected point differential for the game with the Pinnacle spread (“SPREAD”) as of publish time listed to the left of it.
“Total VBE Model” is the projected model’s combined point total with the Pinnacle total (“TOTAL”) listed as of publish time to the left of that number.
“WIN%” is the model’s projected chance of that team winning. Where it says “PK”, that means the model projects the game as too close to call — or a “Pick Em” game.
Download our Free NFL Betting Edge Tool here. It helps you easily calculate game probabilities to odds, to help find the best betting values against the sportsbook. Uncover your value betting edge now! 🏈💰