There are several different types of sports probability models, including statistical models, simulation models, and expert models. Statistical models use data from past events to make predictions about future outcomes, while simulation models simulate thousands of possible outcomes to calculate the likelihood of different scenarios. Expert models involve the input of sports analysts and other experts who use their knowledge and expertise to make predictions about the outcome of a sporting event.

• Check our NBA Probability Model
• Check our NHL Probability Model
• Check our MLB Probability Model
• Check our NFL Probability Model

One of the most important concepts in sports gambling is value betting. Value betting involves identifying bets that offer a better return than the odds suggest. For example, if a team is given odds of 2.5 to win a game, but the probability model suggests they have a 50% chance of winning, then there is value in betting on that team. Value betting is a key strategy for long-term success in sports gambling, as it allows gamblers to take advantage of opportunities where the odds are in their favor.

Another important concept in sports gambling is the player’s edge versus the sportsbook. The player’s edge is the difference between the expected return on a bet and the amount wagered. In other words, it represents the percentage of the total amount wagered that is expected to be won over the long term. The sportsbook’s edge, on the other hand, is the difference between the total amount wagered and the total amount paid out in winnings. This represents the percentage of the total amount wagered that the sportsbook expects to keep as profit.

To be successful in sports gambling, it is important to understand both the value of different bets and the player’s edge versus the sportsbook. By using sports probability models, gamblers can calculate the expected return on different bets and identify opportunities for value betting. They can also calculate their player’s edge and make decisions about where to place their bets based on their long-term expected return.

Sports probability models are essential tools for sports gamblers. They allow gamblers to make informed decisions about where to place their bets and identify opportunities for value betting. Understanding the concepts of value betting and the player’s edge versus the sportsbook is also crucial for long-term success in sports gambling. By using sports probability models and applying these concepts, sports gamblers can increase their chances of success and maximize their returns over the long term.

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• NHL Betting Edge Tool
• NBA Betting Edge Tool
• NFL Betting Edge Tool
• MLB Betting Edge Tool

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In other words, a value bet is when a bettor is able to correctly identify events where the probability of the event occurring is higher than that implied by the bookmarker’s odds then they will win in the long run.

Bet offers value when:

probability of outcome > probability implied by odds

Placing bets on these wrong odds is your advantage, an edge over the bookmakers. Value betting, in the long run, is the most profitable sports betting strategy.

Example of a value bet

Let’s use the example of a coin toss. There is a a 50% chance it lands on heads. This implies fair odds of 2.00. Once the bookmaker adds their margin the odds could be (depending on the bookmaker) around 1.91, implying a 52.4% chance of landing on heads.

Now imagine there is some uncertainty as to the percentage of chance of heads. We have calculated the chance of heads is 50% but the market is uncertain. The bookmaker is now offering odds of 2.2 on heads.

This now offers the opportunity to place a bet with 50% odds as if the event had only a 45.5% chance of occurring. This is a value bet.

We can determine the profitability of a bet by using the expected value formula:

(Probability of Winning) x (Amount Won per Bet) – (Probability of Losing) x (Amount Lost per Bet)

Using our coin toss example, the expected value calculation from a $10 stake is:

0.5 x $12 – 0.5 x $10 = +$1

Each $10 bet, the expected return is $11 ($1 profit).

For each coin flip we can expect to win $11 for every $10 staked. This would become very lucrative in the long run!

How to find value bets

A good way to find value is to look at differences in bookmaker odds. Where bookmakers disagree about the chance of an event occurring may be where value is present. Having accounts at multiple books is common practice when looking for value bets.

Importance of the long run

When value betting it is important to bet for the long term. Even with the clear edge on the coin toss at 2.2 odds, there is still a 50% chance that the bettor loses. This is when a staking strategy becomes important as bankrolls can be decimated by over staking – even on bets that offer value.

In the long run this strategy pays off. Betting $10, after 100 coin flips the bettor would expect to have $1100 from the $1000 wagered.

In a similar way, if you can find enough value bets they will win in the long run.

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